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Hello everybody this Chuck Carnival co-founder. Fast graphs the fundamentals analyzer software tool this is another in my continuing series on youtube subscriber requests. For me to analyze companies that subscribers are interested in and I kind of like the opportunities I'm going to look at them hearing a life and health insurance company now what's interesting to me about this. Is I don't really follow this company and I've not done extensive research one of the real advantages of fast graph research tool is in determining whether a stock is really worthy of researching it or not and I do that by running the company through some basic analysis I'm looking. At valuation is the stock reasonably valued relative to historical norms does it have the. Growth characteristics and the dividend characteristics if it's. A dividend paying stock as this is that I'm interested in owning so one of the first best. Benefits of using fast graphs is to figure out is the company worthy of conducting a more comprehensive research and do diligent effort so let's kind of take whom apart here a. Little bit look at a couple of things that strike me immediately number one is there was a lot of cyclic ality in this stock this is going back. To the recession of 2001 we had a big drop in earnings in 2003 but since this time if you notice that growth rate went from three point six percent but. Since 2006 let's take it back one more year since 2005 the. Company's actually grown operating earnings in about 8% a year and their dividend record during this period of time has been really attractive their. Payout ratio is very low which means they are paying on a high. Percentage of their profits the area below the white line is the dividend payout ratio but let's look at it in numbers the company has kept their dividend flat from 2005 through 2008. And then they started growing the dividend since 2008 and over this particular timeframe since the beginning of o5r the end of a for the company's averaged about eight point eight. Percent dividend growth compound average growth rate eight points now what's interesting about this company is that having said that it is not an above average performer the company has produced similar dividend yield than the. S&P over this timeframe it's moderately underperformed the S&P on no appreciation basis and moderately underperformed it on a total return basis but you would call this probably pretty close to being a good average company so that's that's a plus to keep in mind this calculation that I'm drawing here. Is drawn when the stock was trading at something pretty close to its normal I'll say 9:00 to 10:00 normal p/e. Ratio that's the second thing that strikes me over all the timeframes I've. Been looking at here I want you to. Notice that the market has a tendency to value this and only something around 10. Times earnings so. It rarely ever trades that the multiple of 15 times earnings that most stocks with an 8% growth rate would actually trade out now it's triple be rated only has 21% debt and I consider that a plus the real key is right now it. Appears to be trading relative to historical norms and a very low valuation of blended p/e of 8.1 offers a 2.7 percent dividend yield and with some potential to make some capital appreciation as well as some dividend income now if I. Just do a quick calculation of capital appreciation potential here total return if the stock were. To go back to its ten PE and if it did. Earn a 19-6 and 6% growth rates and analysts are expecting over these next couple of years on earnings you could get a very nice rate of return a total growth of about 47% you could pick up some nice dividend income and have an annualized rate of return about 19 percent per annum out to 2020 so from a. Valuation point of view this stock would be worthy of researching it deeper at least in my opinion. And as I look at this now one or the other subscriber requests that I've had as people have asked me to look at the earnings yield table and I rarely talked about it in my video so I'm going to go down to the earnings yield estimates and talk a little bit about. What this particular graph is doing there are things I really like about this graph and frankly things like don't for one thing. It's pretty aggressive we simply take estimated earnings growth rate. Whatever that number is and let's look at that forecast right now the three to five year long-term estimated growth rate because only one analyst is nine percent going forward over the next you know three. To five years so given that when they go to the earnings yield I'm using that as just simply a basic. Growth assumption that's pretty aggressive and pretty strong and it's pretty. Long period of time ten years. Is too long to be. Forecasting this growth but what I'm really trying to do. With this is compare if it did it's a what-if question what if it did grow with that right how does the company compared to a riskless investment like a ten year Treasury bond well number one is you'll notice this column is pink here it's. Yielding less than a Treasury bond is right now but over the next three years you would. Actually if assuming these assumptions. These growth assumptions were correct you'd actually earn more dividend income than the Treasury would pay you in restless interest that's why the column is peak and then it turns blue for those years now from a total income point of view if again this growth was there now remember this is. Virtually a short if you buy a 10-year Treasury bond you're virtually guaranteed to get from these numbers there's some risk in this but you could pick up thirty eight hundred plus dollars and dividends versus only twenty eight hundred in the ten-year. Treasury bond but the earnings yield is the primary focus here in the earnings yield is simply the inverse of the. P/e ratio instead of price divided by earnings its. Earnings divided by price and my personal minimum threshold is about six to seven percent earnings yield if a company offered me less earnings yield than that that I consider it too risky for me from a valuation point of view but in this case you've got almost double that number so from the earnings yield point of view of. The company is very attractive edie again this is a very aggressive assumption if it were to grow by nine percent it would generate six point. Seven times more earnings than the S&P would throw off riskless interest which means you would be compensated potentially very well for the risk you would take buying a stock versus investing in a Treasury but now I want to look at a couple other aspects of this stock since. It is a dividend payer let's look at operating cash flow now before I do that I'm going to go ahead and take price off in the graph. Because the idea here what I'm looking at operating cash flow I rarely use I do use it in some cases as a valuation metric but for dividend stocks I primarily utilize it as is the dividend well covered by cash flow and you can see the company generates significantly more operating cash flow then they're paying in dividends in. Some cases it's like in 2012 it was virtually ten to one now all this means is there's no one making an estimate for operating cash flow going into 2018 that's all that means there's no data to fill in that box now I'm gonna go next to. Free cash flow which is another form or method of valuing the company safety of its dividend free cash flow is more than adequately covering the. Dividend again which means the company should have no problem given the amount of cash flows that generates free and operating to continue to pay and perhaps grow their dividend over time especially if these analyst forecasts are right now from a valuation perspective even our earnings before. Interest taxes depreciation and amortization is a good way to value most stocks again I have no forecasts here but watch how price correlates to these changes in IVA in this particular company you can see the price going up when even it was rising here you. Can see the price dropped and then as even a recovered we have a nice rise in price then we have again another period of negative even a growth coming into the great recession and it's almost every stock. Did the market might have you know over extended the downside here. Then we had some even of recoveries then we had dropping even I want you to see this now the company does seem to be valued very consistently relative to the amount. Of a better that the company generates in its normal multiples about six point seven times DB that would be the multiple of this orange line the company's currently trading at five point two even but there's a stress there because there's really. No forecast the next I'd like to go. Ahead move into forecasting because you can always examine the past but you can't. Really purchase the past you can only purchase the future so looking at this company from a forecasting point of view and remember that the market generally prices it based on its normal multiple I picked the nine your normal p/e ratio of. Nine I've got the option to evaluate how the bark is nothing to stock now in the five four three two year one-year time frames that's actually been given a double digit multiple but typically it trades somewhere between nine and ten times earnings as I suggested earlier so I'm using the conservative case. Here of nine if what were to true at this nine PE and generate this earnings growth you can see the total reader returned through the end of the year would be over twenty one percent and analyzed at fifty two but is obviously less than a year if. I extend that out further and go out to the end of 2018 you can see we have a capital gain potential of about twenty seven percent. We have some decent dividend income over that time frame so we'd average a total return of thirty-one. Point three seven percent or an annualized rate of return a twenty point five six and then if I go out a little bit further we still stay at double-digit rate of return so using this moderately conservative normal p/e. The company offers decent potential if I go. Ahead and push that up to something for even more normal like nine point six these numbers even get a little better I've got an eighteen percent. Annualized return out to 2020 I've got a twenty five percent almost twenty six annualized out to putting 19 etc now the company has little debt and. You know it does have forecast growth potential here but the real key is if you look at the company historically is. It going to be able to do that or not so it's an interesting company that I would. Consider to be research worthy now if that were the case I would start by simply going into the company's website and I've talked about this before I would start looking for things like investor services I would look for any presentations that the company has done that I'd want to go ahead and review. Those presentations and one reason I do this by the way is when I'm looking at these analyst estimates I want you to. Be clear about something most of these analyst estimates are a function of going. Through and looking. At the company's presentations when the company is giving guidance on what they think they can do I can also. Go into several other sites for example I'm going to try Morningstar here to see if they offer comprehensive on this company I happen to be a subscriber to morning's fire but Morningstar is not providing a comprehensive analysis of this company so that's not necessarily a negative just mean it is what it is so to speak. But then I can go into seeking alpha for example and as I go into here I can find several articles I see here that company began trading on the New York Stock Exchange apparently somewhere around you and that's something I wasn't aware of and you know there are different articles that time to take profits at. The time to buy the insurer I've also got instant access to news items here and I can also go into this earnings tab here and if the company produces a press report I can read transcripts or look at the aid case in the ten case and you know as I can hear in the more recent. Quarter they did miss by a penny but they beat on revenue that to me is not a miss but some people call it a miss and they were strung by long term care at sincere so the stock dropped 15% those things probably attribute to the fact that it was also. Relatively overvalued relative to historical Morris when you look at this. So there's my take on unum from a standpoint of analyst scorecard how accurate of the analysts in forecast in this company it's got an excellent scorecard which means either the company gives good guidance or the analysts find this company easy to analyze which gives me more confidence in these forecasts than I might have enough the scorecard wasn't. As good anyway this is Chuck Carnival this is. A subscriber request series I've never looked at this stock before it would be one that I would probably personally consider going in and looking a little deeper if I was looking. For good value with a we'll call it a slightly above average market dividend yield with an excellent valuation if the company seems to. Have all that if you found this video valuable and I would suggest contacting us you can. Contact us at www.piofl.com and she can help you learn more about fast graphs of how it might to help you with your investments thanks again for watching.


Unum Group Company News

Wed, 08 May 2019 13:07:17 GMT
Unum research highlights key challenges for new parents - Olean Times Herald
<ol><li> Unum research highlights key challenges for new parents Olean Times Herald</font></li><li><a href="/url/?u=https://gvtimes.com/2019/05/08/unum-group-unm-is-a-raging-bear-you-dont-want-to-mess-with/" target="_blank">Unum Group (UNM) Is a Raging Bear You Don’t Want to Mess With! GV Times</font></li><li><a href="/url/?u=https://techknowbits.com/2019/05/09/unum-group-unm-releases-earnings-results-meets-expectations.html" target="_blank">Unum Group (NYSE:UNM) Issues Earnings Results Tech Know Bits</font></li><li><a href="/url/?u=https://standardoracle.com/2019/05/08/recent-notable-mover-investors-must-focus-unum-group-nyseunm/" target="_blank">Recent notable mover investors must focus: Unum Group (NYSE:UNM) StandardOracle</font></li><li><a href="/url/?u=https://williamsbusinessreview.com/unum-group-nyseunms-target-weight-stands-at-0-03930-with-0-48853-profits/91448/" target="_blank">Unum Group (NYSE:UNM)'s Target Weight Stands at 0.03930 With -0.48853 Profits – Williams Business Review Williams Review</font></li><li><strong><a href="/url/?u=https://news.google.com/stories/CAAqOQgKIjNDQklTSURvSmMzUnZjbmt0TXpZd1NoTUtFUWozem9YempZQU1FVUVfLVFBR1ZsOTNLQUFQAQ?oc=5" target="_blank">View full coverage on Google News</a></strong></li></ol>
Wed, 08 May 2019 19:00:00 GMT
Grants available for East Baton Rouge Parish public school teachers - The Advocate
Grants available for East Baton Rouge Parish public school teachers The Advocate The national benefits carrier Unum Group is accepting applications through May 31 for its Strong Schools Grant program. Unum and its Baton Rouge-based ...
Mon, 29 Apr 2019 07:00:00 GMT
Unum Q1 2019 Earnings Preview - Seeking Alpha
Unum Q1 2019 Earnings Preview Seeking Alpha Unum (NYSE:UNM) is scheduled to announce Q1 earnings results on Tuesday, April 30th, after market close. The consensus EPS Estimate is $1.31 (+5.6% Y/Y) ...
Thu, 11 Apr 2019 07:00:00 GMT
Form DEF 14A Unum Group For: May 23 - StreetInsider.com
Form DEF 14A Unum Group For: May 23 StreetInsider.com Wall Street stumbles after record run as Alphabet slides · Berkshire Hathaway Commits to $10 Billion Equity Investment in Occidental (OXY) to Finance ...
Thu, 09 May 2019 10:00:00 GMT
Unum Group (UNM) P/E ratio is noted at 15.08 - Wall Street Morning
Unum Group (UNM) P/E ratio is noted at 15.08 Wall Street Morning Unum Group (UNM) in a recent session, the traded price of the stock is Upswing on trade volume of 2.06 million. 35.67 USD is the clocking price of the share ...
Thu, 09 May 2019 09:34:00 GMT
Unum Group (UNM) Is Attracting Massive Concentrations By Volume Analysis - Investing News Update
Unum Group (UNM) Is Attracting Massive Concentrations By Volume Analysis Investing News Update Unum Group (UNM) stock price move to $35.67 with percentage change of 0.08% during Wednesday trading session. Along recent rise drift, stock price ...
Wed, 08 May 2019 13:46:00 GMT
Stock to Buy: Unum Group (UNM) - Wall Street Morning
Stock to Buy: Unum Group (UNM) Wall Street Morning Unum Group (UNM) the stock traded with price dropping variation with the volume 2.98 million shares by keeping an eye on Tuesday trading session.
Tue, 07 May 2019 12:01:00 GMT
See what the IHS Markit Score report has to say about Unum Group. - Yahoo Finance
See what the IHS Markit Score report has to say about Unum Group. Yahoo Finance Unum Group NYSE:UNMView full report here! Summary * Perception of the company's creditworthiness is positive * ETFs holding this stock are seeing positive ...
Tue, 23 Apr 2019 07:00:00 GMT
What Might Happen Next? – Emerson Electric Co. (EMR), Unum Group (UNM) - Financial Mercury
What Might Happen Next? – Emerson Electric Co. (EMR), Unum Group (UNM) Financial Mercury Looking at top Wall Street opinions, Emerson Electric Co. (NYSE: EMR) has recently made its way into the research list of Citigroup – signaling that their ...
Thu, 18 Apr 2019 07:00:00 GMT
How Excited Should You Be About Unum Group (UNM), ZK International Group Co., Ltd. (ZKIN) - Financial Mercury
How Excited Should You Be About Unum Group (UNM), ZK International Group Co., Ltd. (ZKIN) Financial Mercury Looking at top Wall Street opinions, Unum Group (NYSE: UNM) has recently made its way into the research list of BofA/Merrill – signaling that their analyst's ...